HG MARKETS:

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher from its earlier daily low in the European session, though it still trades slightly negative near the $4,060 zone. The movement comes as mixed commentary from Federal Reserve officials keeps December rate-cut expectations alive, triggering light US Dollar profit-taking after its recent multi-month peak. This modest USD pullback provides initial support to the non-yielding metal.

Geopolitical tensions also lend a bid to Gold, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifying and fresh unrest emerging in the Middle East. These developments preserve safe-haven demand, though traders remain cautious and prefer to wait for this week’s major US data releases, including Q3 GDP and the core PCE Price Index, before committing to clearer directional positions.

Rate-cut bets firmed after New York Fed President John Williams described current monetary policy as modestly restrictive and suggested room for easing in the near term. Markets responded quickly, now pricing in roughly a 67% probability of a December rate reduction. However, hawkish remarks from other officials, like Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, helped limit USD downside and kept pressure on Gold earlier in the session.

At the same time, renewed optimism about a potential December cut improved risk sentiment globally, with Asian equities recovering some of last week’s weakness. The rebound in risk appetite reduces immediate demand for traditional safe-havens like Gold, contributing to the metal’s softer intraday tone.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s major drone strike near Moscow and Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine keep tensions elevated. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has given Ukraine until November 27 to respond to a proposed peace plan, which Kyiv seeks to amend due to tough concessions. These unresolved risks continue to offer underlying support to Gold and discourage aggressive selling.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor a packed US data calendar, beginning with PPI, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, followed by Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index on Wednesday. These releases will shape expectations for the Fed’s rate path and play a crucial role in determining near-term USD momentum and Gold’s next directional move.