HG MARKETS: 

Gold is trading below $4,300, extending a weak weekly performance after falling to around $4,260 The rebound from the weekly low remains limited as the market continues to assess the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook.

The US Dollar remains strong, while rising Treasury yields are adding pressure on gold. The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached around 5.23%, its highest level in nearly two decades, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

Expectations of another Fed rate hike are also weighing on sentiment. Markets are pricing around a 67.5% probability of an October hike, following the Fed’s recent rate increase and continued hawkish comments from policymakers.

Higher oil prices have further complicated the outlook by keeping inflation concerns elevated. This could encourage the Fed to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer, supporting both the dollar and Treasury yields and creating additional headwinds for gold.

However, easing oil prices following reports of possible US-Iran diplomatic progress have provided some relief to gold. Lower oil prices could reduce inflation concerns and ease pressure on bond yields, potentially allowing gold to recover.

From a technical perspective, gold remains vulnerable while trading below key daily moving averages. The 100-day SMA near $4,305 and 50-day SMA around $4,318 are the immediate resistance zone, while the $4,244 area remains an important downside reference.

Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious to bearish while gold stays below $4,300 and the dollar and Treasury yields remain elevated. A sustained move back above the $4,305–$4,318 resistance zone could improve the short-term outlook, while renewed dollar strength and higher yields could keep gold under pressure.