HG MARKETS:

WTI crude futures rose to $59.50 per barrel on Friday, supported by growing geopolitical tensions and worries about disruptions to global supply routes. However, despite this uptick, oil is on track for a weekly loss of more than 5%, pressured by disappointing U.S. GDP data and China’s sharpest factory slowdown in over two years.

There was some optimism as reports emerged of renewed trade talks among major energy-consuming nations. On the production front, OPEC+ may raise output in May, with Saudi Arabia indicating it is prepared to handle lower price levels.

The energy market continues to experience volatility, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and broader economic data, which play a significant role in shaping oil and gas price movements.

Natural gas prices have recently eased from a high of $3.543, though the overall trend still points upward. The price remains above a rising trendline and is supported by the 50-hour EMA at $3.391 and the 200-hour EMA at $3.343. A recent rally from $3.042 to current levels suggests that buyers are still active, but all eyes are on whether the trendline can withstand the current pullback. If it does, a bounce from around $3.419 could reignite momentum, potentially pushing prices back to $3.543 or even higher to $3.659. However, if the support fails, a decline toward $3.285 could follow.

WTI crude has managed to recover from a low of $56.47 and is now trading just below the $59.83 mark. Despite this rebound, it faces resistance from a descending trendline that has kept rallies in check for over a week. While the 50-hour EMA at $59.05 is providing some near-term support, the price remains below the 200-hour EMA at $60.84, keeping the broader trend tilted bearish. A break above $59.83 could open the path to $60.63 and potentially $61.46. If prices fall below $59.05, they could revisit $57.90, with further support seen at $56.47.

Brent crude has rallied from $60.34 and is now hovering just below a key resistance at $62.67, which aligns with a long-standing descending trendline. The price is holding just above the 50-hour EMA at $62.46, but the 200-hour EMA at $63.94 still looms above, reinforcing the current bearish setup in place since mid-April. If buyers manage to break above $62.67, the next upside targets are $63.76 and $64.75. However, if the rally falters at the trendline, prices may slip back to $61.32 or even return to $60.34. Market sentiment is cautious, with traders waiting for a clearer breakout or breakdown before making strong moves.