HG MARKETS:

This week, oil prices surged, driven by tightening U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, coupled with ongoing supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions. The market reacted to declining stockpiles as refinery maintenance limited processing capacity, bolstering expectations of strong demand.

At the same time, uncertainties surrounding key export routes heightened fears of potential supply disruptions. Despite the possibility of diplomatic developments, investor sentiment remained cautious, leading to renewed buying activity in the market. These factors contributed to a 3% weekly gain for major oil benchmarks, emphasizing how geopolitical instability continues to shape both oil and natural gas markets, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to global events.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas prices are currently trading at $4.171 with no significant movement seen today. On the 4-hour chart, a critical pivot point has formed at $4.033, which acts as a key support level. As long as prices stay above this level, the sentiment remains bullish.

However, if prices fall below $4.033, it could trigger strong selling pressure, pushing prices down to the next support at $3.805, or even as low as $3.551. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $4.484, followed by a stronger barrier at $4.745. If natural gas prices break through these resistance levels, it could lead to further gains. Traders should closely watch the 50 EMA at $3.842 and the 200 EMA at $3.469, as they provide dynamic support zones.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $72.33, showing a slight increase but still sitting below the crucial pivot point of $72.53. This level is key to the next move: if prices break above it, bullish momentum could drive oil towards the next resistance at $73.59, and possibly as high as $75.10.

However, as long as prices remain below $72.53, the outlook remains bearish, with initial support at $71.17 and a stronger floor at $70.10. The 50-day EMA at $71.87 is providing dynamic support, while the 200-day EMA at $72.54 is reinforcing resistance, contributing to the bearish sentiment. The pivot point at $72.53 will be critical in determining the next move for WTI.

In conclusion, oil and natural gas markets are being shaped by a mix of supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainties, and technical factors. Traders should watch key pivot points and EMA levels closely as they will play a pivotal role in dictating future price movements.