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Saudi Arabia and Russia Extend Production Cuts, Fueling Global Inflation Concerns

Crude Oil gains

Harvest Global Markets :

In a significant move with far-reaching implications for the global economy, Brent crude oil prices have breached the $90-per-barrel mark for the first time since November. This surge comes as the largest oil-producing nations within the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have decided to extend their supply cuts until the end of the year. While this move bolsters oil prices, it raises concerns about the potential for a fresh wave of inflationary pressures worldwide. Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, has committed to continue its unilateral production cutback of one million barrels a day until December. This decision is expected to keep Saudi output at approximately nine million barrels a day, marking one of the lowest levels in several years. Meanwhile, Russia, a prominent member of the OPEC+ alliance, has also announced an extension of its export reduction by 300,000 barrels a day for the same duration. The impact of these announcements was swift, with Brent crude oil prices surging by as much as two percent to reach $90.75 a barrel. Global oil markets have been tightening as demand for oil reaches record levels, coupled with a steady decrease in oil inventories. Even concerns about economic growth in China, one of the world’s largest consumers of oil, have failed to dampen the summer rally in oil prices.

The rise in oil prices is poised to cause unease in the United States, where the Biden administration is actively working to prevent gasoline prices from reaching $4 a gallon. A resurgence in inflation would not only burden consumers but also pose a challenge to central bankers worldwide who are striving to curb rising inflation rates. Notably, fuels like gasoline and diesel are already trading well above headline crude prices. Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its production cutback exceeded market expectations. A Bloomberg survey of 25 traders and analysts revealed that 20 of them had anticipated only a one-month extension of the additional cutback. Saudi Arabia initially introduced its additional supply cut in July, deepening the reductions already agreed upon within the OPEC+ alliance. This unilateral move came as most OPEC+ members faced output losses due to underinvestment and operational disruptions. For Saudi Arabia, defending the oil market has come at an economic cost, as it experienced the sharpest downgrade in economic growth projections by the International Monetary Fund due to reduced sales volumes. However, for Saudi Arabia, this appears to be an acceptable price to pay. It is believed that the kingdom may need oil prices to approach $100 a barrel to support the ambitious spending projects championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as suggested by Bloomberg Economics.

The decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their production cuts until the end of the year has sent Brent crude oil prices soaring past $90 a barrel. While this move may delight oil-producing nations, it has raised concerns about the potential for a new wave of inflationary pressures on the global economy. As oil markets continue to tighten and demand remains high, the world watches with bated breath to see how these developments will impact energy prices, inflation rates, and economic stability in the months ahead.

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