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US dollar Poised for Weekly Rise as Fed Hike Bets Grow, Focus Turns to Trump-Xi Talks

HG MARKETS: 

The U.S. dollar extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session on Friday and was on track for strong weekly gains, supported by a series of solid economic reports that strengthened expectations of hawkish stance from federal reserve bank.


Market participants were also closely watching developments from the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.3% to 99.12 and headed for a weekly increase of 1.3%, marking its strongest weekly performance in over two months.

Economic data released on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% in April, in line with analyst expectations, while weekly jobless claims stayed relatively low, highlighting continued strength in the labor market.

Meanwhile, import prices rose 1.9%, driven largely by the sharpest jump in fuel costs seen in four years. Earlier in the week, both consumer and producer inflation figures also exceeded forecasts.

As a result, markets have mostly ruled out the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year. According to CME FedWatch data, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December climbed to nearly 40%, up from 22% a week earlier.

Trump and Xi wrapped up their second round of discussions in Beijing on Friday, according to Chinese state media. Reports indicated that both nations agreed on the importance of expanding cooperation while managing ongoing differences. However, no significant trade agreements were announced following the talks.

During the opening day of the summit, Xi said progress had been achieved in trade negotiations but cautioned that tensions over Taiwan could place U.S.-China relations in a “dangerous place.”

Investor confidence also remained cautious after Trump adopted a tougher tone on Iran, writing on Truth Social that “the military decimation of Iran to be continued!.”

In an interview broadcast Thursday night on Fox News, Trump added, “I am not going to be much more patient,” urging Iran to “make a deal.”

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